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FOR LENDING EXECUTIVES

The Future of
Mortgage Distribution

Why platform dominance is giving way to infrastructure enablement

The Current Market

Mortgage originations 2021-2025

-57%

From $1.22B peak to $524B Q4 2025

CAC is up 40% while volume is down

The Old Model

Build brand through advertising ($$$)
Buy leads from aggregators
Compete on rates to win business
High CAC, low retention

The New Model: Embedded

Partner with agent ecosystems
Be present in research phase
Warm referrals, not cold leads
Lower CAC, higher LTV

Market Shift by 2027

2020
Retail dominates
Branches matter
Brand advertising wins
2027
Partnerships dominate
Integration matters
Distribution wins

Strategic Implications

Reduce retail branch footprint
Invest in partnership channels
Build technology integration
Focus on purchase vs refi

Why Now?

Three converging forces

📉
Rates Up
Purchase focus
💰
CAC Crisis
Unsustainable costs
🔌
Tech Ready
APIs enable seamless

Partner Strategy

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